My final Tony predictions

As one of the fraction of a percent of Americans who won't be watching the finale of "The Sopranos" Sunday night, here are my final Tony predictions. Unlike my wish list earlier this year, I'm trying to factor a bit of reality in with whom I would truly like to see win.

Best Play
The Coast of Utopia
Frost/Nixon
The Little Dog Laughed
Radio Golf

I didn't see "Radio Golf" and enjoyed both "Frost/Nixon" and "The Little Dog Laughed," but none come close to the beauty of Tom Stoppard's eloquent albeit a bit pompous trilogy.

Best Musical
Curtains
Grey Gardens
Mary Poppins
Spring Awakening

"Grey Gardens" has a troubled first act and will get its due elsewhere. "Curtains" is fun but uneven overall. "Mary Poppins" is lucky to be nominated. "Spring Awakening" is the real trail-blazer here.

Best Book of a Musical
Curtains, Rupert Holmes & Peter Stone
Grey Gardens, Doug Wright
Legally Blonde The Musical, Heather Hach
Spring Awakening, Steven Sater

The book is the weakest part of "Curtains," and although I haven't seen "Legally Blonde" yet, I feel pretty secure in counting it out. It's a squeaker, particularly since both are adapted materials, but I'm going with teen angst over middle-aged angst here.

Best Original Score
Curtains, Music: John Kander, Lyrics: Fred Ebb, John Kander & Rupert Holmes
Grey Gardens, Music: Scott Frankel, Lyrics: Michael Korie
Legally Blonde The Musical, Music & Lyrics: Laurence O’Keefe and Nell Benjamin
Spring Awakening, Music: Duncan Sheik, Lyrics: Steven Sater

If "Curtains" wins anything, it will be this as a sentimental nod to the late Ebb. But with "The Revolutionary Costume for Today," "Another Winter in a Summer Town" and, yes, "Jerry Likes my Corn" are the most effective pieces written for a musical in some time. The rockers lose this round.

Best Revival of a Play
Inherit the Wind
Journey's End
Talk Radio
Translations

Didn't see "Translations." "Inherit the Wind" was a dutiful but overall uninspiring presentation of a war horse. "Talk Radio" had little to offer outside of the superb Liev Schreiber. That's no small feat, but "Journey's End" was a triumph all around. Absolutely no contest here.

Best Revival of a Musical
The Apple Tree
A Chorus Line
Company
110 in the Shade

The real contest here is between "Company" and "110 in the Shade." Kind of like last year, when Doyle's "Sweeney Todd" lost to the old-fashioned but winning "Pajama Game." Look for the same to happen to Doyle's show this year.

Best Special Theatrical Event
Jay Johnson: The Two and Only
Kiki & Herb Alive on Broadway

Didn't see Kiki & Herb, but Jay Johnson's show got mostly great reviews, and deservidly so.

Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Play
Boyd Gaines, Journey's End
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Brían F. O’Byrne, The Coast of Utopia
Christopher Plummer, Inherit the Wind
Liev Schreiber, Talk Radio

This is one of the toughest ones. O'Byrne has been rewarded for much better work in the past, so count him out. Gaines is excellent but has the least showy part of the bunch. Plummer's a powerhouse, but the overall production he's in is mediocre. Same for Schreiber. Langella's Nixon is a master class in acting and is the last man standing here.

Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Play
Eve Best, A Moon for the Misbegotten
Swoosie Kurtz, Heartbreak House
Angela Lansbury, Deuce
Vanessa Redgrave, The Year of Magical Thinking
Julie White, The Little Dog Laughed

This is another difficult category, perhaps even more so than leading actor in a play, as I could see anyone in it taking home the Tony. Though she's somewhat of a dark horse with a long-closed show, but the early buzz has White the victor, and I couldn't be happier. See what I said about Brian F. O'Byrne for Lansbury. And what I said about Liev Schreiber for Best. I missed "Heartbreak House" and haven't seen "The Year of Magical Thinking," but I'll go out on a limb and say that Kurtz is the possible spoiler here.

Best Performance By a Leading Actor in a Musical
Michael Cerveris, LoveMusik
Raúl Esparza, Company
Jonathan Groff, Spring Awakening
Gavin Lee, Mary Poppins
David Hyde Pierce, Curtains

Another tough category. Lee and Pierce are both great, but it's not going to be a good night for comedy. Cerveris should have won last year for "Sweeney Todd" and is doing excellent work again this year, but the fact that his show was mostly shut out of nominations doesn't bode well for him. That leaves Groff and Esparza. Hmm, seems familiar again: Devastating performance of the central character in a Doyle-directed Sondheim revival versus a fresh face in the season's biggest hit. But even Pierce has gone on the record as saying Esparza should win. Let's hope they get it right this year.

Best Performance By a Leading Actress in a Musical
Laura Bell Bundy, Legally BlondeThe Musical
Christine Ebersole, Grey Gardens
Audra McDonald, 110 in the Shade
Debra Monk, Curtains
Donna Murphy, LoveMusik

Ebersole has all but been promised the Tony all season, but an upset is looking less and less out of the question. McDonald received across-the-board raves for her work as Lizzie Curry and could score her fifth Tony. Murphy is pitch-perfect as Lotte Lenya. But in the end, I think Ebersole will and should still prevail. Monk has some brassy showstoppers, but I don't see her winning here. And poor Bundy is a guppy among sharks.

Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Play
Anthony Chisholm, Radio Golf
Billy Crudup, The Coast of Utopia
Ethan Hawke, The Coast of Utopia
John Earl Jelks, Radio Golf
Stark Sands, Journey's End

Despite not being in the third part of the trilogy, Crudup's performance is one of the most memorable and effective in the show. This is one of my least certain picks, though, having not seen "Radio Golf." Sands also could eke out a victory.

Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Play
Jennifer Ehle, The Coast of Utopia
Xanthe Elbrick, Coram Boy
Dana Ivey, Butley
Jan Maxwell, Coram Boy
Martha Plimpton, The Coast of Utopia

It's a toss-up between Ehle and Plimpton, so I flipped a coin, and Ehle won. While both Elbrick and Maxwell are deserving of their nominations, the gravitas of "The Coast of Utopia" will overshadow the melodrama of "Coram Boy." As far as Dana Ivey, I didn't even remember "Butley" was a part of this season. I think the Tony voters might feel the same.

Best Performance By a Featured Actor in a Musical
Brooks Ashmanskas, Martin Short: Fame Becomes Me
Christian Borle, Legally Blonde The Musical
John Cullum, 110 in the Shade
John Gallagher, Jr., Spring Awakening
David Pittu, LoveMusik

In this case, the fresh face wins out. Ashmanskas, Borle and Pittu are all talented and hard-working actors who've finally earned their due with this nomination, but neither will beat out Gallagher's tortured Moritz, one of the best performance's "Spring Awakening" has to offer. Cullum is fine but doesn't have much to do in his show.

Best Performance By a Featured Actress in a Musical
Charlotte d’Amboise, A Chorus Line
Rebecca Luker, Mary Poppins
Orfeh, Legally Blonde The Musical
Mary Louise Wilson, Grey Gardens
Karen Ziemba, Curtains

No contest at all here. d'Amboise got decidedly mixed reviews, and Luker and Ziemba just aren't given much to work with in comparison with Wilson.

Best Direction of a Play
Michael Grandage, Frost/Nixon
David Grindley, Journey's End
Jack O'Brien, The Coast of Utopia
Melly Still, Coram Boy

The real contest here is between Grindley and O'Brien. "Journey's End" was nearly flawless, while "Utopia" had some rough spots. I'm probably wrong here, but I'm sticking with Grindley and hoping it doesn't jinx him.

Best Direction of a Musical
John Doyle, Company
Scott Ellis, Curtains
Michael Greif, Grey Gardens
Michael Mayer, Spring Awakening

The best musical doesn't direct itself. Right, Martin Scorsese?

Best Choreography
Rob Ashford, Curtains
Matthew Bourne and Stephen Mear, Mary Poppins
Bill T. Jones, Spring Awakening
Jerry Mitchell, Legally Blonde The Musical

Jones might ride the rising "Spring Awakening" tide, but really -- is the spastic hopping in that show really superior to the dazzling nod to old Broadway on display in "Curtains"? I'd put the cutesy "Mary Poppins," which features an upside-down tap dance from the proscenium, in before it, too, and it very well might win. But I'm sticking with "Curtains."

Best Orchestrations
Bruce Coughlin, Grey Gardens
Duncan Sheik, Spring Awakening
Jonathan Tunick, LoveMusik
Jonathan Tunick, 110 in the Shade

Tunick's reworking of a lovely classics beats his own reworkings of a great writers songbook.

Best Scenic Design of a Play
Bob Crowley & Scott Pask, The Coast of Utopia
Jonathan Fensom, Journey's End
David Gallo, Radio Golf
Ti Green and Melly Still, Coram Boy

"Utopia" could win on its opening visuals alone, but its design is lovely through-and-through.

Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Bob Crowley, Mary Poppins
Christine Jones, Spring Awakening
Anna Louizos, High Fidelity
Allen Moyer, Grey Gardens

Cat food cans and old newspapers? I love what you've done with the place, Moyer!

Best Costume Design of a Play
Ti Green and Melly Still, Coram Boy
Jane Greenwood, Heartbreak House
Santo Loquasto, Inherit the Wind
Catherine Zuber, The Coast of Utopia

With enough period costumes to clothe a small Russian city, Zuber is the clear winner here.

Best Costume Design of a Musical
Gregg Barnes, Legally Blonde The Musical
Bob Crowley, Mary Poppins
Susan Hilferty, Spring Awakening
William Ivey Long, Grey Gardens

"Spring Awakening" has that drab, oppressed look, "Legally Blonde" is blindingly bright and "Mary Poppins" is both in just one scene. But Long's revolutionary costumes carry the day.

Best Lighting Design of a Play
Paule Constable, Coram Boy
Brian MacDevitt, Inherit the Wind
Brian MacDevitt, Kenneth Posner, and Natasha Katz, The Coast of Utopia
Jason Taylor, Journey's End

As great as "Journey's End" was, the most frequent complaint was how damn dark it was. The "Utopia" team gets this one.

Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Kevin Adams, Spring Awakening
Christopher Akerlind, 110 in the Shade
Howard Harrison, Mary Poppins
Peter Kaczorowski, Grey Gardens

Hey, someone had to hang all those bulbs from the season, if if they weren't using all of them.